Oracle, probably

Only a company of this standing can command such a headline: “Oracle’s Profit Probably Rose as Acquisitions Boosted Sales.” You have to love that “probably.”

Analysts expect Oracle Corporation to report a first-quarter fiscal year profit, thanks to some US $20 billion in acquisitions. The estimates have Oracle’s numbers rising 19 percent to a total profit of US $881 million; the widely-reported numbers originally came form Goldman, Sachs & Co.’s Rick Sherlund. Sherland put Oracle sales at around US $3.48 billion, a gain of 20 percent.

According to Bloomberg’s online edition, “In June, the company forecast net income for the quarter ended Aug. 31 would rise to as much as US $591.7 million or 11 cents a share, from US $519 million, or 10 cents, a year earlier. Sales, which included some deferred revenue and didn’t conform to generally accepted accounting principles, were US $2.91 billion a year earlier.

“Oracle forecast profit excluding acquisition and stock-option costs would rise to US $819.2 million to US $848.7 million, or 16 cents a share, compared with US $738 million and 14 cents a year earlier. The average estimate of 29 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is for earnings of 16 cents a share and revenue of US $3.47 billion. Thomson doesn’t say what numbers are included in the estimates.”

On the day of the “probably” news story, however, the cold hard facts were that Oracle shares fell 8 cents to US $16.25 n Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. “A bump on a smooth highway,” says the cool investor, as the shares have risen 33 percent this year.

Oracle has reported that application license sales advanced 83 percent in Europe, and that the biggest gains came at the expense of Walldorf, SAP’s German base. as it took market share from Walldorf, Germany-based SAP.

Just last month, Oracle reported on leader Larry Ellison’s income, showing staggered numbers which had him bagging about US $55.4 million in total compensation in fiscal 2006, well more than double what he got in 2005. Ellison received US $7.4 million in salary and bonus in fiscal 2006, almost the same figure as the year previous.

Six million options granted Ellison are valued today US $12.34 a share, and were valued at US $46.6 million with a 5 percent annual appreciation or US $118 million at 10 percent. In 2005, 2.5 million options were granted to him at a strike price of US $10.83 per share. Ellison also collected some US $63.2 million from stock options exercised during the 2006 fiscal year.

Ellison is Oracle’s biggest investor, with 1.28 billion shares in the company.